TFC Republic Weekly: September 30-October 6

Welcome to the latest edition of TFC Republic Weekly, an email newsletter that will land in the inbox of both paid subscribers and free members of TFC Republic every Monday. 

This newsletter will look at what's in store over the next seven days for Toronto FC and offer a glimpse of what to expect at TFC Republic in the coming days. 

So, without further ado... 

Toronto FC lets road win slip through its fingers

What might have been. 

That’ll be the prevailing thought that haunts Toronto FC in the aftermath of its 1-1 draw vs. the Chicago Fire on Saturday night at SeatGeek Stadium.  

Playing for the third time in eight days, a very leggy TFC looked to be in firm control late in the match while sitting on a slender 1-0 lead thanks to a first-half goal from Prince Owusu.

But the Reds couldn’t close the deal and let what would’ve been a hugely important win slip through their fingers when they turned off defensively and allowed an equalizer from Jonathan Dean with six minutes remaining in regulation time.  

“It's a missed opportunity. Three points; we were four minutes away from taking three points. So, it's a big missed opportunity... Yeah, frustrating, but it is what it is. We've got to get after New York. It's a huge match for us at home and Miami at home. Gotta go and win. Win at home,” coach John Herdman told reporters in the post-match press conference.

Reds barely hanging onto 8th spot in Eastern Conference 

Even with the draw on the weekend, Toronto (11-17-4, 37 points) remains in eighth place in the Eastern Conference.

But it is tied on points with the Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal who both have a game in hand. Atlanta United and D.C. United are also hot on the Reds' tail, just three points back and with a game in hand.

TFC's final two matches of the regular season are at home this week (vs. the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami) and they will be idle on Oct. 19 for Decision Day, the final matchday of the MLS campaign.

So, with the Reds' fate not entirely in their hands, you’d have to think they need four to six points from their remaining contests in order to have any chance of clinching their first playoff berth in four years.   

If the post-season started today, Toronto would host Philadelphia in the wild card match with the winner advancing to the next round where it would face Miami in a best-of-three series. But don't count those chickens just yet. TFC is trending in the wrong direction at the worst possible time as they are now winless in four games and have just one win in their last six contests across all competitions.

"Dropping points, especially in the last 10 minutes, is extremely disappointing, and it's going to sting," fullback Kobe Franklin said after the Chicago match.

"But the turnaround is quick, and that's the whole team's focus now, are the next two games ahead of us. Very, very valuable points and kind of an all or nothing situation. So, I think everybody's going to be ready to shift their focus there and fight for the badge."

A massive two-game week for TFC

Toronto FC closes out its 2024 MLS regular season with a pair of home games this week.

First, TFC will host the New York Red Bulls on Wednesday (7:30 p.m. ET/Apple TV & TSN). The Red Bulls earned a 3-0 league win over TFC on June 22, but Toronto exacted a measure of revenge when it defeated New York in the group stage of the Leagues Cup in July. New York leads the all-time MLS regular season series against Toronto with 22 wins and nine draws in 41 meetings

After the New York match, Toronto hosts Inter Miami in its season finale on Saturday (4:00 p.m. ET/Apple TV). The Florida-based club beat TFC 3-1 at home in MLS action on July 17 and bested the Reds again in the round of 32 in the Leagues Cup on Aug. 8. Miami leads the all-time MLS regular season series against Toronto with seven wins and two losses.

Miami and New York have already clinched playoff berths but they both have plenty to play for this week. New York sits sixth in the Eastern Conference and is trying to climb into a top-four spot in order to secure home-field advantage in the second round of the playoffs. Miami is looking to sew up the Supporters' Shield which would secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Even if Toronto wins both games, there's no guarantee it'll qualify for the playoffs, as that will depend on how other results around the league go. At the same time, the Reds could be eliminated from playoff contention before Decision Day if they lose their final two games of the season.

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Stories to look out for at TFC Republic

This will be the most important week of the MLS regular season for Toronto FC as its two final games of the campaign (both at home) will go a long way in determining Toronto FC's fate with regards to the playoff race. TFC Republic will have in-depth pre- and post-match coverage of both contests. Be sure to check out the website every day for fresh content.

Other stories that will be published later this week include:                 

• My piece looking at the key storylines to watch from TFC this week.    
• My “Random Thoughts on TFC” column.  
• My piece that breaks down the playoff race as it pertains to Toronto FC.
• Regular "TFC Tidbits" stories throughout the week.  
• In-depth pre- and post-game coverage of Toronto's home games vs. the New York Red Bulls.   
• An audio interview piece with Michael Battista of New York Sports Nation ahead of Wednesday's game vs. the New York Red Bulls.
• In-depth pre- and post-game coverage of Toronto's home game vs. Inter Miami.   
• A new audio interview piece with Alex Windley of The Heron's Nest ahead of Saturday's game vs. Miami. 
• The TFC 2 report with James Grossi.    
• We'll have a full breakdown of the latest Canadian men's team squad when the roster drops this week.
• And much more! 

TFC Republic mailbag

TFC Republic will feature a regular reader mailbag column where I answer questions from subscribers about Toronto FC and Canadian soccer in general.

I'll answer the best questions submitted to me by TFC Republic readers, so feel free to drop me an email at jmo1897@gmail.com. You can also reach out to me via Twitter.

(Top photo courtesy of Lucas Kschischang/Toronto FC)

TFC Republic has a comments section! At the very bottom of every story, there is a feature where you can post your comments, so be sure to share your thoughts and views.